Water Scarcity and Conflict

Water scarcity is a significant problem within Africa with around one third of the population living in ‘water-scarce’ conditions. An increasing population fosters greater demand for water for consumption and agriculture (Falkenmark, 1990). Thus, combined with declining rainfall due to climate change, the problem of water scarcity is worsening (ibid). In this context, there has been a growing scholarship attempting to understand how water scarcity can incite conflict. In this blog post I will analyse the contemporary discourses around the scarcity-conflict relationship and delve beyond populist news headlines suggesting water will be at the heart of future conflicts.

Popular Discourses of conflict

Within the media and amongst policy circles there is a strong dialogue around water that points whole-heartedly towards conflict. These concerns that increasing water scarcity will incite wars have been apparent for sometime, for examplethe BBC (1999) claimed ‘the main conflicts in Africa over the next 25 years will likely be over water’ as ‘one in two African countries will face water scarcity in the next 25 years’. However a report into the causes of conflict in Africa suggests borders, ethnicity, military and political as the main reasons for violence, despite references to ‘resources’ water was not once explicitly mentioned (GSDRC, 2011). In spite of this, popular discourses still offer apocalyptic predictions of water resource violence on the continent exemplified by a Guardian article (Goldenberg, 2014). This article suggests that reservoir loss, combined with increased water use in watering crops, cooling power plants and quenching cities’ thirst has increased tensions over water. It further argues that ‘water in shared basins will be used as leverage in confrontations’. The Pacific Institute also cited a fourfold increase in violent confrontations over water in the last decade due to increased competition, bad management and climate change (Pacific Institute, 2016). Thus it is clear that news sources hold a pessimistic viewpoint of how increasing scarcity will foster violent conflict. However political leaders also share similar fears with Prince Hassan of Jordan claiming ‘a war over water could be even bloodier than the Arab Spring (Goldenberg, 2014). I feel that the discourses around water scarcity constructed by world leaders, academics and the media all forward a very pessimistic ‘doomsday’ view of Africa’s ability to manage water resources.

Source - http://www.chrismadden.co.uk/inkline-press/beast/Dam-gun520.jpg 

Conflict

Bearing in mind the populist ideas around water scarcity, it is pertinent to investigate some specific examples and studies to provide a factual basis to judge how scarcity may influence conflicts. Nina Von Uexkull’s (2014) study utilises high-resolution data to argue that sustained drought is associated with an increased risk of civil conflict. Arguably, previous studies on drought and conflict haven’t taken into account local vulnerabilities enough. She suggests that areas relying on rain-fed agriculture are far more likely to see civil conflicts, partaking in rebellions to redress economic grievances and obtain food and incomes. Thus, with 95% of agriculture being rain-fed in Sub-Saharan Africa (Giordano, 2006), vast swathes of the continent are at risk of violent conflict as water scarcity worsens. This is exemplified by a conflict in Kiboya, Kenya between herders and farmers. Longer dry seasons and uncertain rains have put significant pressure on farmers, made worse by pastoralists who have begun migrating their livestock onto farmland due to these droughts. Thus tensions have risen between pastoralists and farmers who both compete for smaller areas of productive land. This has resulted in pastoralist’s cattle eating farmers crops wiping out their profitability. Furthermore some pastoralists have began carrying guns creating fears for farmers who wish to confront them (Langat, 2015). Evidently, the increasing water scarcity in the region has created conflicts between these two groups and generates an atmosphere where violence could easily break out as their livelihoods lie on the line. The land in this area was once communally owned, however the government has sold around 50% to ranchers, therefore this tussle for land rights has heightened tensions. This highlights that there are a myriad of political factors causing conflicts and water scarcity alone isn’t a deciding factor. This is corroborated by Von Uexkull et al’s further 2016 study, which clarifies the scarcity-conflict relationship highlighting, that the most affected are agriculturally dependent and politically excluded groups in very poor countries. Perhaps conflicts over water can be mitigated by improving factors such as poverty, exclusion or poor resource management (Ohlsson, 2000).

Water Scarcity in the Horn of Africa
Source - https://climateandsecurity.files.wordpress.com/2013/04/water_distribution_in_horn_of_africa.jpg

Alternatives to Conflict

However Conflict isn’t always the first answer to water scarcity, the following examples emphasize that populist and dystopian views aren’t always founded and may in fact play up to the hegemonic and damaging stereotypes of ‘Africa’ as a war-torn continent.

Domestically

Relating back to the farmer-pastoralist conflict, the establishment of resource forums in Tanzania brings together herders and farmers to discuss and share water resources peacefully. In Ikolongo village, Tanzania, clashes between farmers and pastoralists led to one death and many injuries, in light of this the Tanzania Natural Resource Forum was created to build understanding around the needs and motivations of different stakeholders (Makoye, 2016). The facilitation of meetings has allowed for agreements on where cattle can drink without impacting farmer’s water resources, furthermore it has led to farmers giving rice husks for cattle to feed on reducing waste. In return, pastoralists provide a donation to local governments to build primary school classrooms; this example highlights how cooperation not only stops conflicts it also provides many spill over benefits to the local community. Mahoo, a local professor of agricultural engineering, states that ‘partnerships like these are essential to coming up with solid solutions to water clashes’ (ibid).

A further example of reducing conflicts is provided by appropriate technology Solar Powered Wells in Kenya. These stop people having to utilise neighbouring community water resources in scarce times, reducing the tensions this creates. Furthermore the creation of these wells have allowed for pastoralists to settle rather than migrating to provide water for cattle, in turn this has improved school attendance levels, once again highlighting the knock-on effects of combatting water scarcity conflicts (Langat, 2016). However these examples highlight the need for strong institutions and communities in order to foster cooperation. I hope that many communities can implement these management schemes in the future.

Internationally

This blog has mainly dealt with small scale, civil conflicts over water resources as previous blogs have focused on international conflicts within the Nile River Basin, however I will provide a small analysis. Within the International realm, apocalyptic discourses make very appealing news stories, in spite of this Kipping and Lindemann (2004) suggest that it is always easier and financially beneficial to avoid conflicts. This is exemplified by a wealth of International Agreements over transboundary water resources in Africa such as the Zambezi Commission, or Nile River Basin Initiative. Whilst there are certainly tensions between these countries they have yet to lead to genuine military conflicts. For example within the Nile Basin, rather than go to war with Ethiopia, Egypt has slowly begun to cooperate and negotiate. Being a downstream riparian, they realise that the way to ensure the most beneficial share of water is to cooperate with upstream riparians such as Ethiopia over the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (Salman, 2013).

Conclusions

It is evident that pressures over water are clearly increasing in Africa, caused by increasing populations and reducing rainfall patterns just to name a few factors. However I feel that conflicts are certainly overhyped as discourses of ‘water wars’ and ‘bloody conflicts’ make for good news reports. The examples I have provided highlight that it is always more productive to cooperate, both domestically and internationally. However it is pertinent that African countries invest in institutions that foster cooperation and peaceful resolutions, as water scarcity is likely to get far worse in the future.

List of References

BBC (1999) Africa’s potential water wars. Available at: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/africa/454926.stm  

Falkenmark, M. (1990) ‘Rapid population growth and water scarcity: The predicament of tomorrow’s Africa’, Population and Development Review, 16, p. 81.

Giordano, M. (2006) ‘Agricultural groundwater use and rural livelihoods in sub-saharan Africa: A first-cut assessment’, Hydrogeology Journal, 14.

Goldenberg, S. (2014) Why global water shortages pose threat of terror and war. Available at: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/feb/09/global-water-shortages-threat-terror-war (Accessed: 23 December 2016).

GSDRC (2001) Causes of conflict in Africa. Available at: http://www.gsdrc.org/document-library/causes-of-conflict-in-africa/ (Accessed: 23 December 2016).

Langat, A. (2016) Solar-powered wells ease conflict over water in Kenya’s rift valley. Available at: http://news.trust.org/item/20160211101256-7228s/?source=spotlight (Accessed: 23 December 2016).

Langat, W. (2015) As water falls short, conflict between herders and farmers sharpens. Available at: http://news.trust.org/item/20151123073426-fqt5n/?source=spotlight (Accessed: 23 December 2016).

Lindemann, S. and Kipping, M. (2004) ‘Konflikte und Kooperation um Wasser’  Münster: LIT Verlag.  

Makoye, K. (2016) Straight talking calms rural water conflicts in Tanzania. Available at: http://news.trust.org/item/20160303102838-e0jr1/?source=spotlight (Accessed: 23 December 2016).

OhIsson, L. (2000) ‘Water conflicts and social resource scarcity’, Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Part B: Hydrology, Oceans and Atmosphere, 25(3), pp. 213–220.

Pacific Institute (2016) Water and conflict - pacific institute. Available at: http://pacinst.org/issues/water-and-conflict/ (Accessed: 23 December 2016).

Salman, M.A. (2013) ‘The Nile basin cooperative framework agreement: A peacefully unfolding African spring?’, Water International, 38(1), pp. 17–29.

Von Uexkull, N. (2014) ‘Sustained drought, vulnerability and civil conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa’, Political Geography, 43, pp. 16–26.

Von Uexkull, N., Croicu, M., Fjelde, H. and Buhaug, H. (2016) ‘Civil conflict sensitivity to growing-season drought’, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 113(44), pp. 12391–12396.